Record Low Grid Demand Due to Mild Winter and Rooftop Solar
As One Nation proposes to eliminate key grid improvements and revert energy policies towards baseload power from both old and new coal plants, the energy market operator has revealed unprecedented lows in electricity demand. This trend underscores the necessity for enhanced flexibility, storage, and transmission capabilities in the energy sector.
The first notable record originates from South Australia, recognised for its high concentration of renewable energy. On Sunday, August 30, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) reported that rooftop solar accounted for an astounding 99.9% of the total electricity demand, reducing grid-scale generation demand to a mere 2 megawatts (MW) at 1:30pm (AEST) – marking a new winter benchmark.
National Electricity Market Records
On a broader scale, the National Electricity Market (NEM) reported that mild temperatures and clear skies in the southeastern regions of Australia led to a winter minimum operational demand of 11,992 MW, also at 1:30pm, surpassing the previous winter low record of 12,144 MW set back in August 2024.
AEMO highlighted on LinkedIn that the combination of high rooftop solar generation and negative wholesale prices resulted in batteries being charged at above-average rates, enabling the storage of excess renewable electricity for use during peak evening hours.
At the time of the NEM’s minimum demand record, rooftop solar contributed approximately 54% of the underlying demand, with the total renewable contribution—including rooftop solar, grid-scale solar, and wind—reaching 71% of the overall generation. Battery charging comprised around 10.5% of total demand, while hydro pumping accounted for just over 2%.
A further indication of the changing energy landscape was observed as average wholesale prices dropped into negative territory across all NEM regions, varying from -$7.40/MWh in Queensland to -$8.60/MWh in Tasmania.
AEMO noted that these records illustrate the rapid transformation of the electricity system, where high levels of renewable generation are increasingly supported in real-time by batteries, hydro, and gas, underpinned by a robust transmission network. The significance of these changes underscores the necessity to strategically plan for a power system that is dynamic and adaptable.
Impact of Recent Weather Patterns
Turning to broader climate trends, Australia experienced its joint-third warmest winter on record, with mean temperatures 1.45 degrees above the historical average from 1961-1990, as reported by the Bureau of Meteorology on Tuesday.
New South Wales, Tasmania, and Victoria experienced their mildest winters ever recorded, surpassing earlier highs set in 2023, while Queensland’s winter was its second warmest, falling short of the previous year’s record. Victoria’s temperatures exceeded its prior warmest winter by nearly a quarter of a degree, with readings averaging 1.4 degrees above the long-term norm. Tasmania surpassed its previous winter maximum by 0.15 degrees, and New South Wales’ new high was 0.05 degrees warmer than the former record.
This recently concluded winter marked the hottest season ever for New South Wales, Victoria, and Tasmania regarding mean temperatures. The ski season, in stark contrast, has been notably poor, with much of the precipitation falling as rain rather than snow.
Across the country, winter minimum temperatures were predominantly above average, apart from a small area in northwestern Western Australia. The intensifying El Niño weather pattern in the Pacific has begun to impact global temperatures, suggesting this year might be among the hottest, with 2027 potentially setting a significant new record.
In August, almost the entire nation experienced “very much above average” mean temperatures, making it Australia’s fifth-warmest August on record, with Tasmania recording its highest average for the month ever.
