IEA Underestimates Global Solar Growth Again

Annual Solar Output Forecasts: The IEA’s Underestimation Continues

Yearly predictions from the International Energy Agency (IEA) consistently fall short when it comes to the projected output of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels. This trend is a central theme in an upcoming book by Auke Hoekstra, an energy researcher from the Netherlands, titled “Power to the People”.

Hoekstra took to social media platforms, including Bluesky, to share his observations about this discrepancy, which he has noted for nearly two decades. For example, back in 2008, the IEA anticipated that solar PV output by 2030 would be substantially lower than the current volumes produced by factories—mainly in China—every few days.

Reality vs. Projections

In terms of actual output, as illustrated by a dark green line in Hoekstra’s chart, the growth trajectory is almost vertical. In contrast, the IEA’s annual updates within their World Energy Outlook reports have predominantly indicated a stable, flat production growth approaching the future.

Hoekstra utilised the IEA’s “stated policies” scenario for his analysis, highlighting that the agency’s “current policies” scenario is even less optimistic. “Reality keeps surprising the IEA,” he remarked, further emphasising the significant difference between the agency’s forecasts and actual developments.

Shifts in Solar Demand

In its most recent World Energy Outlook released last November, the IEA had yet to account for the skyrocketing oil prices that followed the onset of the US-Israel conflict with Iran in February. However, the agency did predict a notable shift in solar panel demand towards sunnier regions globally. “Mapping the new geography of demand onto the distribution of global energy resources reveals that, by 2035, 80% of energy consumption growth will occur in areas with optimal solar irradiation,” they stated.

This marks a stark contrast to the previous decade, where medium- to low-solar regions accounted for half of the growth. “This helps explain the rapid adoption of solar technologies in our forecasts, along with the increased demand for cooling,” the report noted.

So, prepare for more solar surprises on the horizon.

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