Wind and Solar Achieve Record Market Shares Despite Curtailment
On Saturday, wind and solar energy achieved remarkable milestones in their market share, despite facing significant curtailment that limited their potential output from over 113 per cent of grid demand to just under 80 per cent.
As reported by GPE NEMLog, renewable energy sources reached a new high of 79.8 per cent at 11 am (AEST) on Saturday, driven by strong winds across southern Australia and the ability of some large coal units to significantly reduce their output or even shut down entirely.
New Records for Variable Renewables
Geoff Eldridge from GPE noted that the share of variable renewables, which includes large-scale wind, solar, and rooftop photovoltaic systems, peaked at 77.1 per cent, surpassing the previous record of 75.9 per cent set in late September.
Interestingly, this peak was largely achieved through rooftop solar, as many large-scale wind and solar projects were curtailed rather than contributing to the grid. This curtailment was likely due to economic factors, such as negative wholesale prices, as well as potential network limitations.
Potential Output and Future Grid Management
The curtailed wind and solar energy alone represented about one-third of the underlying demand, indicating that the potential share of renewables exceeded 113 per cent at that time, marking another record.
The Australian Energy Market Operator is gearing up for a future where it can manage the grid with up to 100 per cent instantaneous renewable penetration. While there were hopes to achieve this by 2025, it appears that not all necessary engineering preparations are in place. The operator likely requires additional synchronous condensers and grid-forming batteries to provide the “system strength” typically supplied by coal-fired generators.
Moreover, it remains uncertain whether the owners of some coal-fired generators will be willing to completely shut down their operations. Some have already adapted to operate at just 20 per cent of their rated output to mitigate the effects of rooftop solar. AGL, for instance, has been “two-shifting” one of its units at Bayswater, turning it off for an entire shift during the day, a practice it appears to have continued on both Friday and Saturday.
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