Home Battery Market Declines for First Time Since Rebate Launch

New statistics reveal that Australia’s once-thriving home battery market did not experience growth in January 2026; instead, it saw a contraction for the first time since the Cheaper Home Batteries rebate was launched in July 2025.

According to the latest analysis from SunWiz, small-scale battery registrations were recorded at 983 megawatt-hours in the first month of the year, a decline from nearly 1.2 gigawatt-hours noted in December.

Understanding the Decline

Warwick Johnston, managing director of SunWiz, attributes this 17 per cent drop primarily to installers taking a much-deserved break during the summer holidays, rather than a decrease in consumer demand.

The Clean Energy Council’s recent report highlights that the federal rebate has significantly boosted consumer interest in home batteries, with expectations that this trend will continue, particularly with upcoming rebate amendments set to take effect in May.

State-Wise Performance

The data further indicates that battery market activity contracted in nearly every Australian state by over 20 per cent in January. Victoria, however, managed to stand out with a slight 3 per cent increase in registered home battery systems.

Overall, small-scale battery registrations for January 2026 fell below the 1 gigawatt-hour threshold, reaching 983 megawatt-hours; nevertheless, industry experts like Johnston maintain that the market remains robust.

Battery Size Trends

In contrast to the declining registration numbers, there has been no decrease in the size of the battery systems being installed through the rebate. SunWiz reports that the average size of these battery installations has grown, now averaging 35.64 kWh (kilowatt-hours) in January.

Rooftop Solar Registrations Down

In terms of rooftop solar, installations also took their typical January dip, with a total of 244 megawatts of solar PV systems registered, reflecting a significant 32 per cent decrease compared to December figures.

Johnston notes that while this drop appears substantial, it follows a strong performance through the latter part of 2025 that included four months of growth. He remarks that the January decline aligns with seasonal patterns and closely mirrors the same figures from January 2025.

Commercial and Residential Installations

Commercial solar installations, especially within the 50–70 kilowatt (kW) market segment, have been particularly affected, reporting a sharp decline of 57 per cent. Meanwhile, residential installations also fell by 24 per cent month-on-month.

As the home battery market adjusts to these seasonal trends, industry stakeholders remain optimistic about the long-term outlook, particularly with the anticipated changes to the rebate expected to stimulate renewed interest.