CIS Tender 1 Projects Face Delays in Securing Finance
The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) has revised its forecasts for large-scale wind and solar projects in Australia for 2025, now anticipating approvals of up to 3.5 gigawatts (GW) within the current calendar year.
In its latest report published on Friday, the CER revealed that as of August 22, 2.6 GW of large-scale renewable capacity has been approved for the issuance of large-scale generation certificates in 2025, which includes 1.5 GW approved in the second quarter alone.
Revised Projections for Renewable Approvals
Due to this progress, the CER has updated its 2025 projections for large-scale renewable approvals, increasing the range from its earlier estimate of 2.7 to 3.1 GW to a new forecast of between 3.0 and 3.5 GW.
Challenges with Capacity Investment Scheme Projects
However, the CER has acknowledged that projects awarded contracts under the federal government’s Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) are advancing more slowly than initially anticipated. It noted that many of the projects from CIS Tender 1 will require additional time to reach their final investment decision (FID), contrary to earlier expectations of achieving 6 GW of FID approvals in 2025.
“Based on progress to date, we now expect this capacity to reach FID over a longer timeframe,” the CER stated. It highlighted that out of the 19 projects awarded under Tender 1, 10 have made strides towards FID, with several receiving development approvals, Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) rights, or commencing assessments under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act during the second quarter of 2025.
Of the 6.4 GW of capacity supported by Tender 1, 4.5 GW has progressed in its development since the announcement of successful projects. This includes 1 GW that has either had EPBC applications approved, begun construction, or been accredited under the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET).
Current Status of Projects
Among the 19 projects from Tender 1, one—the 450 MW Goulburn River solar farm in New South Wales—has reached FID and is currently under construction, while another, the Mokoan solar farm, has been accredited.
The CER anticipates that future tenders will support greater capacity and expedite the process, with the CIS expected to expand to 40 GW by 2030, utilising a single-stage bidding process. This expansion, announced by federal Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen, has been made possible by the decreasing costs of solar and battery technologies.
Wind Energy Developments
Wind energy projects continue to face challenges, with no projects achieving FID in 2025 thus far. However, several new initiatives are gearing up to reach FID in 2026, including the 831 MW Pottinger wind project in New South Wales, the 300 MW Goyder North project in South Australia, and the initial 132 MW stage of Fortescue’s East Pilbara generation hub in Western Australia.
Other projects are also believed to be nearing FID, including some within the CIS Tender 1 process, such as the Palmer wind project in South Australia.
Recent Approvals and FID Achievements
The CER noted that projects approved for large-scale generation certificates in the second quarter included the Stubbo and Wollar solar farms in New South Wales, the Clarke Creek wind farm in Queensland, and the Mokoan solar farm in Victoria, which is the first project from CIS Tender 1 to reach this milestone.
From July 1 to August 22, a total of 820 MW of capacity was approved, comprising 440 MW from the Culcairn solar farm in New South Wales and two biomass projects.
In terms of projects reaching FID, the CER identified only 672 MW in the second quarter, all of which were solar projects—the Wandoan South, Cloudbreak, and Lancaster solar farms. None of these were part of the CIS.
“This represents around 75% of the average we have observed over the first two quarters since 2019. However, it should be noted that FID can vary significantly over time,” the CER remarked.
