Australia’s Home Battery Market Experiences Healthy Reset Amid Rooftop Solar Growth
The home battery market in Australia is witnessing a “healthy reset,” with recent data indicating a nearly 30 per cent decline in monthly installations, as the new systems are being tailored to more appropriate sizes of 20-30 kilowatt-hours, down from an inflated average of around 50 kWh.
According to solar industry analyst SunWiz, a total of 1.07 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of home batteries were installed in June, reflecting a decrease of 28.3 per cent compared to May’s figures.
Market Trends and Insights
Warwick Johnston, managing director of SunWiz, highlights that although the dip in June brings market growth below the 12-month trendline, the current numbers still surpass those seen at the beginning of 2026 and are roughly three times higher than the figures from a year ago, shortly after the introduction of the federal rebate.
Johnston describes the current situation as “[a healthy reset] following the rebate-driven surge,” emphasising that this is a controlled adjustment rather than a structural decline, with late registrations likely to improve the final statistics.
Impact of Federal Policy Changes
This recalibration follows a change made on May 1 to the federal Labor’s Cheaper Home Batteries rebate scheme, which limits full access to discounts for the first 14 kWh of a battery system’s usable capacity. The rebate now offers a 60 per cent discount on storage ranging from 14 kWh to 28 kWh, and a mere 15 per cent for systems between 28 kWh and 50 kWh.
The objective of these changes was to temper the rapidly growing market and ensure that government subsidies are not predominantly consumed by larger systems exceeding 50 kWh.
Shifts in System Sizes
According to Johnston, the market is adjusting by moving away from oversized models towards more manageable 20-30 kWh systems. The segment for oversized 40-50 kWh batteries notably decreased by 46 per cent month-on-month, while the 10-20 kWh category saw a reduction of 42 per cent. On the other hand, installations in the 20-30 kWh range saw an impressive surge of 114 per cent, establishing it as the new focal point of the market, even though 40-50 kWh systems maintained dominance in total volume.
Johnston notes that although the charts indicate growth in the 20-30 kWh category, uncertainties regarding installation dates make it challenging to ascertain the exact conversion of small-scale technology certificates to kWh, as many likely represent 40 kWh systems that were installed prior to May 1 but registered in June.
Overall Market Dynamics
Johnston warns that the market has significantly cooled since its peak and is expected to decline further. Meanwhile, rooftop solar continues to achieve its highest levels for the first half of the year, running approximately 41 per cent ahead of the same period in 2025.
Following the surge in battery rebates, June recorded 322 megawatts (MW) of new rooftop solar capacity, down 4 per cent compared to the previous month and off 26 per cent from April’s peak of 435 MW.
According to Johnston, the battery incentive has contributed to this year’s impressive performance. He remarks that “June 2026 stands clearly ahead of the same month in 2023–2025, marking the most robust June on record, despite a drop from April’s highs.”
Changes in System Size and Market Composition
Smaller systems within the 0-15 kW residential category experienced a slight increase of 2 per cent month-on-month, while all larger categories declined, particularly the 20-30 kW segment which fell by 31 per cent, and the 15-20 kW category which dropped by 16 per cent. The 10-15 kW group remains the backbone of the market at around 118 MW, comprising roughly 37 per cent of overall installations.
Furthermore, Johnston indicated that the majority of the national decline stemmed from the 15-100 kW segment that had contributed to April’s peak performance, resulting in a decrease in the national average system size to a 12-month low of 10.01 kW, down from 10.47 kW in May and an apex of 11.32 kW in April.
