Australia to Achieve 10 GW Wind and Solar Capacity by 2025 Despite Low Project Starts

Recent data from Australia’s electricity grids has uncovered some remarkable insights, particularly a prediction from Rystad Energy’s David Dixon that the country will surpass 10 gigawatts of new wind and solar energy by 2025. This will mark a significant achievement, being the first time such a capacity has been reached.

This figure includes both behind-the-meter solar and battery installations, though it requires some estimation regarding residential components. As of this year, 9.04 GW of new capacity has been activated, but it is important to note that not all of this has been fully commissioned yet.

Progress Towards Renewable Targets

This development indicates a shift towards renewable energy, albeit not at the consistent pace necessary to meet the federal government’s ambitious aim of 82% renewable energy by 2030. Most analysts are sceptical that this target will be reached; however, if the focus is solely on energisation, the government may come close, potentially reflecting a major achievement.

Challenges in Construction

Contrastingly, another report from Dixon reveals a less optimistic outlook for new construction in 2025, predicting it to be the lowest in a decade since former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s attempts to halt the expansion of renewable energy. Dixon estimates that less than 300 MW of new capacity will begin construction that year, which includes projects like the King Rocks wind venture and an extension of the Warradarge wind farm, both located in Western Australia.

Although the Uungula wind project in New South Wales commenced pouring concrete foundations in October, it has been under development for over a year. Consequently, it will be included in the 2024 data rather than the upcoming year’s figures.

Upcoming Project Developments

Improvement may be on the horizon, as three wind projects are nearing a financial investment decision, crucial for moving forward with construction. The Palmer and Carmody Hill wind projects in South Australia have already secured off-take agreements and connection approvals, and are finalising their financial arrangements.

Additionally, the smaller Waddi wind project in Western Australia is also close to finalising its financial commitments. Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen is optimistic that other wind and solar projects benefiting from underwriting agreements in the initial two generation tenders under the Capacity Investment Scheme will accelerate their progress.

Renewable Energy Production Insights

In November, utility-scale photovoltaic and wind installations generated 5,271 GWh, reflecting a substantial 28% increase from the 4,107 GWh produced in the same month of 2024. When including rooftop solar, the total production exceeded 9,000 GWh.

This achievement has resulted in renewables accounting for over 50% of energy production for the second consecutive month, and for the third consecutive month, renewables have outperformed coal.

However, the true test will be if this trend continues into autumn and winter, as well as during the more favourable spring and summer months.

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